🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436,000 on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the month's conclusion increased in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a initial bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the Friday before the event. However the market's assessment had climbed to eleven percent by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Insider trading is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."